Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Urban heat island effect potentially elevating recorded temperatures
AI updated 7/3/2026, 5:09:12 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| omniroute | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 29% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Related markets and connected predictions
correlates · strength 60%
r3
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
3,162,740
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 5.0¢
Entry: 0-4
—
Resolution
2d
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
1 points
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
Market predicts exactly 26°C as the highest temperature in Beijing on July 5, 2026, with a current probability of 0.95%. Typical July climatology shows average highs near 31-33°C, making an exact reading of 26°C highly unlikely under normal conditions.
A strong monsoon surge or prolonged cloud cover could suppress daytime heating, leading to temperatures well below the July average. Cold fronts or post-rainfall cooling sometimes push daily maxima into the mid-20s, creating a plausible path to 26°C.
Historical data indicates July 5 highs rarely deviate more than a few degrees from the 31°C norm, and the precision of whole-degree measurement further reduces the odds of exactly 26°C. Even in cooler scenarios, temperatures typically settle in the 27-29°C range rather than exactly 26°C.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
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