Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: The inherent unpredictability of specific daily weather events more than two years in advance.
AI updated 7/3/2026, 1:16:29 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| gemini | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 30% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
0%
ORYN Consensus
1%
Signal Score
+0.5
Opportunity
0.4
Graph Relationships
Related markets and connected predictions
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Weather patterns in Beijing may be influenced by global climate trends, which can also impact crude oil demand and, by extension, shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, creating an indirect relationship between the temperature in Beijing and crude oil prices or Strait of Hormuz traffic.
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There is no direct relationship between the highest temperature in Beijing on July 3 and the political outcomes such as Putin's presidency or the success of Manifold.love in terms of daily active users.
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Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
3,505,203
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 45.0¢
Entry: 0-3
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
2 points
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
This prediction market asks if the highest temperature in Beijing on July 3, 2026, will be 30°C or below. Historical data for Beijing Capital International Airport (ZBAA) consistently shows daily high temperatures above 30°C for this date, indicating a very low probability for the 'Yes' outcome. The current market probability is 0.05%.
An unseasonably strong cold front or unusual atmospheric conditions could bring significantly cooler weather to Beijing in early July, leading to a daily high of 30°C or below. While rare, such weather anomalies are possible due to natural variability or broader climate shifts, potentially pushing temperatures below typical seasonal averages.
Beijing's climate in early July is characterized by hot and often humid conditions, with historical daily high temperatures at ZBAA consistently exceeding 30°C over the past decade. It is significantly more probable that the highest temperature on July 3, 2026, will be above 30°C, aligning with established seasonal climate patterns and recent trends.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
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