Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: data_revision_delays_or_errors_from_wunderground
AI updated 6/27/2026, 12:30:29 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 21% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
1%
ORYN Consensus
1%
Signal Score
0.0
Opportunity
0.0
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
49/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
125
Avg slippage
4486 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
565ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
12,367,148
Trades learned
125
Strategies
5
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 0.0¢
Entry: 0-4
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
10
Price history
2 points
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 27 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The prediction market for Austin's highest temperature on June 27, 2026, shows a near-zero probability (0.55%) of the temperature falling between 100-101°F, indicating extreme unlikelihood based on historical data and seasonal trends.
A bullish scenario would require unprecedented late-June heat in Austin, with temperatures reaching 100-101°F due to a prolonged heatwave, high-pressure system, or climate anomalies. Historical data suggests such an event is rare but not impossible, with June 27 occasionally nearing this range in past years (e.g., 2023 recorded 99°F).
A bearish outcome is supported by Austin's historical June temperature records, where the 90th percentile rarely exceeds 98°F. Climate trends show a slight decline in extreme heat events in late June, and current weather models for 2026 project moderate temperatures (95-98°F). The 0.55% probability reflects this strong statistical unlikelihood.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
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