Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: temperature_measurement_precision
AI updated 6/29/2026, 2:00:32 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 23% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
7%
ORYN Consensus
7%
Signal Score
+0.5
Opportunity
0.4
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
49/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
125
Avg slippage
4486 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
565ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
12,367,148
Trades learned
125
Strategies
5
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 50.0¢
Entry: 4-10
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
4
Price history
1 points
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The market reflects a low probability (6.50%) that Ankara's highest temperature on June 30, 2026, will reach 30°C, based on historical climate data and seasonal trends. The prediction aligns with Ankara's typical June temperatures, which rarely exceed 30°C.
A heatwave could push temperatures above 30°C due to climate anomalies or persistent high-pressure systems. Ankara has recorded temperatures above 30°C in late June historically (e.g., 2021: 32.5°C), though such occurrences are rare. Unusual weather patterns or a strong subtropical ridge could justify this outcome.
Ankara's June climate is historically moderate, with average highs around 27-29°C. The likelihood of exceeding 30°C is low, as June typically features transitional weather with limited extreme heat. The market's low probability (6.50%) reflects this statistical rarity.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
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