This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Key risk: Data revisions from Wunderground prior to resolution
AI updated 6/27/2026, 4:30:32 AM
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd Consensus
1%
ORYN Consensus
2%
Signal Score
+1.4
Opportunity
1.1
ORYN is polling its model network — Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — for this market. The consensus and per-model dissent will appear here.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
The market reflects a low probability (0.80%) that Ankara's highest temperature on June 29, 2026, will reach 34°C, based on historical climate patterns and seasonal norms for the region.
A bullish scenario could materialize if an unusual heatwave or atmospheric blocking pattern develops in late June, pushing temperatures significantly above seasonal averages. Unseasonably warm air masses from the Middle East or Mediterranean could also contribute to extreme heat.
The bear case assumes typical late-June weather patterns for Ankara, where average highs are around 28-30°C, making 34°C an outlier. Persistent cloud cover, rainfall, or cooler-than-average air masses would suppress temperatures below the target.
No comments yet. Be the first to share your forecast thesis.
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 34°C on June 29? is tracked on ORYN with data sourced from polymarket. Current market-implied probability is 0.7% while ORYN AI estimates 2%.
ORYN aggregates forecasting intelligence across Asia-focused categories including crypto, AI, cricket, startups, and global events.
