This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Key risk: Potential revisions to temperature data post-resolution window
AI updated 6/26/2026, 11:00:24 PM
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd Consensus
11%
ORYN Consensus
12%
Signal Score
+0.5
Opportunity
0.4
ORYN is polling its model network — Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — for this market. The consensus and per-model dissent will appear here.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
The prediction market suggests a low probability (11.50%) that Ankara's highest temperature on June 28, 2026, will reach 29°C. Historical climate data for Ankara in late June indicates typical high temperatures of 26-28°C, making 29°C an outlier scenario.
A bullish outcome could occur if a strong high-pressure system settles over Turkey, bringing hotter-than-average air masses from the southeast or a Saharan heatwave influence. Persistent drought conditions or urban heat island effects in Ankara could also elevate temperatures beyond historical norms.
A bearish outcome is more likely given Ankara's continental climate, where late June highs rarely exceed 28°C. Cloud cover, unseasonable rainfall, or cooler air masses from the Black Sea region could suppress temperatures below the 29°C threshold.
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Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 28? is tracked on ORYN with data sourced from polymarket. Current market-implied probability is 11% while ORYN AI estimates 11.5%.
ORYN aggregates forecasting intelligence across Asia-focused categories including crypto, AI, cricket, startups, and global events.
