Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Potential revisions to temperature data post-resolution window
AI updated 6/26/2026, 11:00:24 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 23% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
11%
ORYN Consensus
12%
Signal Score
+0.5
Opportunity
0.4
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
49/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
125
Avg slippage
4486 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
565ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
12,367,148
Trades learned
125
Strategies
5
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 50.0¢
Entry: 8-14
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
11
Price history
5 points
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The prediction market suggests a low probability (11.50%) that Ankara's highest temperature on June 28, 2026, will reach 29°C. Historical climate data for Ankara in late June indicates typical high temperatures of 26-28°C, making 29°C an outlier scenario.
A bullish outcome could occur if a strong high-pressure system settles over Turkey, bringing hotter-than-average air masses from the southeast or a Saharan heatwave influence. Persistent drought conditions or urban heat island effects in Ankara could also elevate temperatures beyond historical norms.
A bearish outcome is more likely given Ankara's continental climate, where late June highs rarely exceed 28°C. Cloud cover, unseasonable rainfall, or cooler air masses from the Black Sea region could suppress temperatures below the 29°C threshold.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
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