Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Data revisions from Wunderground post-resolution cutoff
Calibrated 100% · raw 900% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 6/27/2026, 12:15:27 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 21% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
36%
ORYN Consensus
45%
Signal Score
+9.0
Opportunity
6.1
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
49/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
125
Avg slippage
4486 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
565ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
12,367,148
Trades learned
125
Strategies
5
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 900.0¢
Entry: 33-39
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
10
Price history
4 points
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The prediction market for Ankara's highest temperature on June 28, 2026, currently stands at 43.50%, indicating a slight bearish sentiment toward reaching 28°C. Historical and climatological trends suggest moderate confidence in this outcome.
Ankara's June climate typically features warm days with historical highs often exceeding 28°C. If regional heatwaves or persistent high-pressure systems develop, the probability of reaching 28°C could increase significantly, aligning with seasonal patterns.
Ankara's June temperatures can be variable due to continental climate influences, with cooler spells or cloud cover reducing peak temperatures. A shift toward cooler-than-average conditions or unusual weather patterns could suppress the high to below 28°C.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
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