Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Current provided Weather Underground page shows no recorded data yet, so no direct observational confirmation is possible now
AI updated 7/3/2026, 4:46:09 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| omniroute | — | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 30% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
1%
ORYN Consensus
1%
Signal Score
0.0
Opportunity
0.0
Graph Relationships
Related markets and connected predictions
correlates · strength 60%
Temporal and domain overlap theme: the Ankara market is a short-horizon meteorological event, whereas the related Hormuz, Putin, crude, and platform-user markets are mostly geopolitical, commodity, or adoption questions over different timeframes; any relationship is therefore mostly cross-market sentiment rather than shared fundamentals.
correlates · strength 60%
Category mismatch/diversification: 'Will Manifold.love reach 1000 daily active users (7d average) by Feb 14, 2024?' is a platform growth/adoption market with essentially no causal relationship to Ankara temperature, making it largely independent.
correlates · strength 60%
Energy/commodity link: Ankara heat can raise regional cooling demand, which can modestly support oil and power prices; this creates a weak positive thematic connection to crude-oil markets such as 'Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June?'.
correlates · strength 60%
Geopolitical supply-chain link: Strait of Hormuz traffic affects global oil supply expectations; supply disruption can influence energy prices, while Ankara temperature is weather-driven, so the relationship to 'Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?' and 'Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?' is indirect and weak.
correlates · strength 60%
Political-risk link: 'Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?' can move regional energy and gas market sentiment, but it has little direct effect on whether Ankara specifically reaches 31°C on July 5; correlation is mostly through broader macro/weather-insensitive energy narratives.
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
3,179,209
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
MEDIUM
EV 830.0¢
Entry: 0-4
—
Resolution
1d
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
2 points
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The market is pricing an extremely low chance that Ankara Esenboğa's exact daily high on July 5, 2026 will be 31°C. Given the contract resolves to one exact integer temperature bucket and the provided page currently shows no historical data yet for that date, the main question is climatological plausibility rather than source confirmation; 31°C appears possible but not dominant for early July in Ankara, so the listed 0.70% looks too low.
Early July in Ankara is typically hot and dry, and 31°C sits near a plausible summer daytime maximum for Esenboğa rather than an outlier. Because the market resolves to whole degrees Celsius, several nearby underlying true highs could round or land exactly on 31°C, making the exact bucket more attainable than a sub-1% market price implies.
Exact-temperature markets are mechanically hard to hit because probability is spread across many neighboring integer outcomes such as 29°C, 30°C, 32°C, and 33°C. If a hotter synoptic pattern dominates central Anatolia on July 5, the most likely highs may cluster above 31°C, leaving 31°C only a modest single-bucket outcome rather than a favorite.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
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