Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Revisions to temperature data by Wunderground after initial publication
Calibrated 100% · raw 1485% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 6/26/2026, 3:00:55 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 22% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
0%
ORYN Consensus
15%
Signal Score
+14.8
Opportunity
12.6
Graph Relationships
Related markets and connected predictions
correlates · strength 60%
r1
correlates · strength 60%
r2
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
49/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
125
Avg slippage
4486 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
565ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
12,367,148
Trades learned
125
Strategies
5
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 1485.0¢
Entry: 0-3
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
12
Price history
2 points
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The market for Amsterdam's highest temperature on June 28, 2026, shows a very low probability (0.15%) of reaching 21°C, based on historical climatological data and seasonal trends. The resolution depends on real-time meteorological measurements from Wunderground, which are subject to revision until the first data point for July 1, 2026, is published.
A bullish scenario could materialize if an unexpected heatwave or prolonged high-pressure system over Northwestern Europe pushes temperatures significantly above the seasonal average. Late June occasionally sees unseasonably warm conditions in the Netherlands due to Saharan air intrusions or prolonged easterly winds, which could push the mercury to 21°C.
The bearish case assumes typical late June weather patterns for Amsterdam, which historically average around 18-20°C for daily highs. Persistent cloud cover, Atlantic low-pressure systems, or maritime airflows would suppress temperatures below 21°C, aligning with long-term climatological norms.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
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