Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: late_revisions_to_meteorological_data
Calibrated 100% · raw 450% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 6/29/2026, 5:01:07 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
27%
ORYN Consensus
22%
Signal Score
-4.5
Opportunity
3.8
Graph Relationships
Related markets and connected predictions
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No direct relationship between Amsterdam temperature and US-Iran diplomatic meetings
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correlated market
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
1,469,098
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
8
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV -450.0¢
Entry: 24-30
—
Resolution
2d
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
4 points
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The market predicts a low probability (26%) that Amsterdam's highest temperature on July 1, 2026, will reach 23°C, based on historical climatological data and seasonal trends. The resolution depends on real-time meteorological records from Schiphol Airport, which are subject to last-minute revisions.
A bullish outcome could materialize if a heatwave or persistent high-pressure system over Western Europe drives temperatures above 22°C, aligning with recent trends of warming summers. Unseasonably warm air masses from southern Europe or prolonged sunlight exposure may elevate the daily maximum.
A bearish outcome is more likely given Amsterdam's maritime climate, where July 1 temperatures rarely exceed 22°C historically. Cloud cover, Atlantic air masses, or late-season cooling trends could suppress the daily high below the threshold.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
No direct venue links for this market. ORYN exclusive markets are intelligence-only.
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