Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Unpredictable referee decisions
AI updated 6/26/2026, 7:36:00 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 23% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
11%
ORYN Consensus
11%
Signal Score
0.0
Opportunity
0.0
Graph Relationships
Related markets and connected predictions
correlates · strength 60%
Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?
correlates · strength 60%
Will the US debt ceiling be raised by the end of June 2023? (M$10,000 subsidy)
correlates · strength 60%
Will Manifold.love reach 1000 daily active users (7d average) by Feb 14, 2024?
correlates · strength 60%
Will OpenAI become significantly less closed source as a result of the leadership transition?
correlates · strength 60%
Will Sam Altman be the CEO of OpenAI on January 1st 2024?
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
49/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
125
Avg slippage
4486 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
565ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
12,367,148
Trades learned
125
Strategies
5
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 0.0¢
Entry: 8-14
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
12
Price history
2 points
In the upcoming game, scheduled for July 1, 2026 If Bosnia and Herzegovina wins, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve "No". This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
As of the current prediction market, Bosnia and Herzegovina has a 10.5% probability of winning their match on July 1, 2026. This low probability suggests significant uncertainty or unfavorable odds against their victory.
Bosnia and Herzegovina could win if key players return from injuries, tactical improvements are implemented, or their opponents underperform. A strong home advantage or favorable referee decisions may also tilt the odds in their favor.
Bosnia and Herzegovina faces a high risk of losing due to potential injuries to key players, poor recent form, or facing a significantly stronger opponent. External factors like travel disruptions or political instability could also negatively impact their performance.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
Route to regulated venues when you are ready. ORYN never holds your funds.
ORYN does not hold funds or execute trades. You will be redirected to a third-party regulated venue.
No comments yet.