Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Injury or tactical substitution removing Tomiyasu from play
AI updated 6/26/2026, 12:56:11 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 22% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
2%
ORYN Consensus
2%
Signal Score
0.0
Opportunity
0.0
Graph Relationships
Related markets and connected predictions
correlates · strength 60%
Unrelated to nation state usage of LLMs
correlates · strength 60%
Unrelated to OpenAI leadership and policies
correlates · strength 60%
Unrelated to US debt ceiling
correlates · strength 60%
Related to sports performance markets, e.g. 'Arsenal: number of shots on target'
correlates · strength 60%
Unrelated to Manifold.love user growth
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
49/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
125
Avg slippage
4486 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
565ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
12,367,148
Trades learned
125
Strategies
5
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 0.0¢
Entry: 0-4
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
11
Price history
40 points
In the upcoming FIFA World Cup game between Tunisia and Japan, scheduled for June 21 at 12:00 AM ET: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Takehiro Tomiyasu records more than 0.5 shots on target within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. This market will resolve to "No" if Takehiro Tomiyasu records 0.5 shots on target or fewer within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. Shots on target are counted only if credited to Takehiro Tomiyasu in the official match statistics. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. If Takehiro Tomiyasu is listed as inactive or otherwise does not play, the market will resolve "No". This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. Extra time and penalty shoot-outs are excluded. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The prediction market for Takehiro Tomiyasu recording more than 0.5 shots on target in Japan's upcoming World Cup match against Tunisia is trading at 1.50%, indicating low probability. The outcome depends heavily on Tomiyasu's playing time and performance, with historical data suggesting limited direct shooting involvement for defenders.
Tomiyasu could exceed 0.5 shots on target if Japan's offensive strategy involves frequent crosses or set-pieces where he participates as a target, or if he makes an unexpected forward run contributing to shots. A high-tempo game with Tunisia struggling defensively could also increase his shot opportunities.
As a defender, Tomiyasu typically records few shots on target, with most shots likely attributed to forwards or midfielders. If Japan dominates possession without direct involvement from Tomiyasu, or if Tunisia's defense neutralizes his involvement, the probability of him recording shots on target remains low.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
Route to regulated venues when you are ready. ORYN never holds your funds.
ORYN does not hold funds or execute trades. You will be redirected to a third-party regulated venue.
No comments yet.