Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Extremely low base rate for any single player reaching 2+ goals+assists in a World Cup match
AI updated 7/3/2026, 1:31:37 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
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|---|---|---|---|
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ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
0%
ORYN Consensus
0%
Signal Score
+0.1
Opportunity
0.1
Graph Relationships
Related markets and connected predictions
correlates · strength 60%
correlated market
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Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
3,505,203
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
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LOW
EV 15.0¢
Entry: 0-3
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
1 points
In the upcoming FIFA World Cup game between Portugal and Croatia, scheduled for July 2 at 7:00 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Marco Pašalić records more than 1.5 combined goals + assists within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. This market will resolve to "No" if Marco Pašalić records 1.5 combined goals + assists or fewer within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. Goals and assists are added together: each goal or each assist credited to Marco Pašalić in the official match statistics adds one to the combined total. Combined goals + assists are counted only if credited to Marco Pašalić in the official match statistics. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. If Marco Pašalić is listed as inactive or otherwise does not play, the market will resolve "No". This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. Extra time and penalty shoot-outs are excluded. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
This market bets on Marco Pašalić recording 2+ combined goals and assists in a World Cup match against Portugal. Given his limited role as a substitute for Croatia and the low scoring nature of high-stakes knockout games, the implied probability of 0.05% is reasonably accurate. The extreme rarity of such an event makes this a near-certain No resolution.
Croatia could earn penalties or set-piece opportunities where Pašalić, if used as an impact substitute, might score or assist. Portugal may dominate possession and leave space on the counter, which could favor a fast winger like Pašalić. A 3-2 high-scoring game could see him involved in multiple goals if he gets significant minutes.
Pašalić is not a regular starter and has never scored multiple goals or assists in an international match. Portugal's defense is strong, and knockout games tend to be low-scoring and tightly contested. Even if he plays, the probability of one player reaching 2 goal contributions in under 90 minutes minus extra time is vanishingly small for a non-star player.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
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