Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Perišić may not start or may be substituted early
Calibrated 100% · raw 150% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 7/2/2026, 10:15:35 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| omniroute | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 30% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
4%
ORYN Consensus
2%
Signal Score
-1.5
Opportunity
1.4
Graph Relationships
Related markets and connected predictions
correlates · strength 60%
UEFA Champions League winner
correlates · strength 60%
Ivan Perišić: 2+ goals
correlates · strength 60%
Croatia match outcome
correlates · strength 60%
Tottenham Hotspur match outcome
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
3,446,153
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV -150.0¢
Entry: 1-6
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
1 points
In the upcoming FIFA World Cup game between Portugal and Croatia, scheduled for July 2 at 7:00 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ivan Perišić records more than 1.5 assists within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. This market will resolve to "No" if Ivan Perišić records 1.5 assists or fewer within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. Assists are counted only if credited to Ivan Perišić in the official match statistics. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. If Ivan Perišić is listed as inactive or otherwise does not play, the market will resolve "No". This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. Extra time and penalty shoot-outs are excluded. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
Ivan Perišić recording 2+ assists in a single World Cup match is a highly improbable event given historical assist rates and the low-scoring nature of knockout-stage games. The market's 3.5% probability already reflects this extreme improbability, and Perišić's age and reduced role make it even less likely.
Perišić is still capable of dangerous crosses and set-piece delivery. If Croatia scores 3+ goals and he is involved in multiple attacking sequences, he could luck into two assists. A chaotic, high-scoring game against Portugal might create the necessary conditions.
Perišić is 37 and no longer a guaranteed starter; he may come off the bench or play limited minutes. Croatia vs Portugal is likely a tight, low-scoring affair where a single player getting two assists is improbable. He has recorded 2+ assists in only a handful of games in his entire career.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
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