Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Ronaldo listed as inactive or substituted early
AI updated 7/2/2026, 10:16:30 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
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|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| omniroute | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
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| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 30% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
3%
ORYN Consensus
3%
Signal Score
0.0
Opportunity
0.0
Graph Relationships
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Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ assists
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Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
3,069,667
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 0.0¢
Entry: 0-6
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
1 points
In the upcoming FIFA World Cup game between Portugal and Croatia, scheduled for July 2 at 7:00 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Cristiano Ronaldo records more than 1.5 assists within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. This market will resolve to "No" if Cristiano Ronaldo records 1.5 assists or fewer within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. Assists are counted only if credited to Cristiano Ronaldo in the official match statistics. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. If Cristiano Ronaldo is listed as inactive or otherwise does not play, the market will resolve "No". This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. Extra time and penalty shoot-outs are excluded. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
At 3% probability, this market reflects Ronaldo's extremely low historical assist rate in World Cup matches and his age (41 in 2026). A forward needing 2 assists in a single game against a strong Croatian defense is a very remote outcome. The market appears fairly valued given the long odds.
If Portugal dominates possession and Ronaldo plays a deeper, creative role, he could find two assists from set pieces or through balls. Unlikely but possible if Croatia overcommits and Portugal's attack clicks.
Ronaldo has never recorded 2 assists in a World Cup match, and his style is that of a finisher, not a creator. Croatia's organized defense and the low-scoring nature of World Cup knockout games make this highly improbable. If he doesn't start, the market immediately resolves No.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
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