Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Rice's potential inactivity due to tactical decisions or injury
Calibrated 100% · raw 150% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 6/27/2026, 4:15:41 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 21% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
11%
ORYN Consensus
9%
Signal Score
-1.5
Opportunity
1.1
Graph Relationships
Related markets and connected predictions
correlates · strength 60%
No direct relationship with maritime traffic or Panama football match outcomes
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No direct relationship with startup user acquisition metrics
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Inverse correlation with low-scoring football matches
correlates · strength 60%
No direct relationship with geopolitical or crude oil markets
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
49/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
125
Avg slippage
4486 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
565ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
12,367,148
Trades learned
125
Strategies
5
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV -150.0¢
Entry: 8-14
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
5
Price history
3 points
In the upcoming FIFA World Cup game between Panama and England, scheduled for June 27 at 5:00 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Declan Rice records more than 1.5 shots within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. This market will resolve to "No" if Declan Rice records 1.5 shots or fewer within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. Shots are counted only if credited to Declan Rice in the official match statistics. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. If Declan Rice is listed as inactive or otherwise does not play, the market will resolve "No". This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. Extra time and penalty shoot-outs are excluded. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The market for Declan Rice recording 2+ shots in England's upcoming World Cup match against Panama has a low probability of 9.00%, suggesting skepticism about his involvement or impact in the game. The resolution hinges on his official match statistics, with inactivity or poor performance likely to drive a 'No' outcome.
Declan Rice could exceed 1.5 shots if England dominates possession, allowing him to attempt long-range or speculative shots, or if Panama's defense is porous, enabling counter-attacking opportunities. His role as a box-to-box midfielder may also lead to higher shot attempts in open play.
Rice may record 1.5 shots or fewer if England's tactical setup limits his attacking involvement, such as playing deeper in midfield or prioritizing possession without direct shooting opportunities. Alternatively, Panama's compact defense could stifle his attempts, reducing his shot count.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
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