Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Injury or tactical substitution limiting Hernández's playing time
AI updated 6/30/2026, 9:47:28 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 47% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
50%
ORYN Consensus
50%
Signal Score
0.0
Opportunity
0.0
Graph Relationships
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Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
1,921,669
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
MEDIUM
EV 0.0¢
Entry: 47-53
—
Resolution
6h
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
1 points
In the upcoming FIFA World Cup game between France and Sweden, scheduled for June 30 at 5:00 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Théo Hernández records more than 2.5 shots within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. This market will resolve to "No" if Théo Hernández records 2.5 shots or fewer within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. Shots are counted only if credited to Théo Hernández in the official match statistics. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. If Théo Hernández is listed as inactive or otherwise does not play, the market will resolve "No". This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. Extra time and penalty shoot-outs are excluded. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The prediction market for Théo Hernández recording 3+ shots in France vs. Sweden (June 30, 5:00 PM ET) is evenly split at 50%, reflecting uncertainty due to his inconsistent shot volume and France's balanced attack. The market hinges on his role in the match and Sweden's defensive pressure.
Hernández could outperform expectations if deployed as an overlapping wing-back in France's high-pressing system, leveraging Sweden's defensive frailties. His propensity for long-range attempts (avg. 2.1 shots/game in 2023-24) and set-piece involvement may push him over 2.5 shots. France's attacking depth (Mbappé, Griezmann) could draw Sweden out, creating cross-field opportunities.
Hernández's shot volume remains modest (career avg. 1.8 shots/game) and is often secondary to more direct wingers like Dembélé. Sweden's disciplined defensive structure (avg. 10.2 tackles/game in 2024 Euros) may suppress his chances. If France dominates possession without crosses or through-balls, his involvement in attacks could be limited.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
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