Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Injury or tactical exclusion
AI updated 6/29/2026, 7:00:57 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 23% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
11%
ORYN Consensus
10%
Signal Score
-1.0
Opportunity
0.8
Graph Relationships
Related markets and connected predictions
correlates · strength 60%
No direct relationship to shipping traffic (e.g., Strait of Hormuz ship transits)
correlates · strength 60%
Related to sports betting (e.g., Kylian Mbappé performance)
correlates · strength 60%
Unrelated to geopolitical events (e.g., Strait of Hormuz, Putin)
correlates · strength 60%
Unrelated to tech startup metrics (e.g., Manifold.love daily active users)
correlates · strength 60%
Unrelated to commodity prices (e.g., Crude Oil prices)
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
49/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
125
Avg slippage
4486 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
565ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
12,367,148
Trades learned
125
Strategies
5
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV -100.0¢
Entry: 8-14
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
2 points
In the upcoming FIFA World Cup game between France and Sweden, scheduled for June 30 at 5:00 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Kylian Mbappé records 3+ goals in the official box score within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Own goals do not count. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve "50-50". If the player is listed as inactive or otherwise does not play, the market will resolve "No". The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The prediction market suggests a low probability (10%) that Kylian Mbappé will score 3+ goals in France's FIFA World Cup match against Sweden on June 30. Historical performance and match context reduce the likelihood of such an outcome.
Mbappé has demonstrated elite scoring ability in high-pressure World Cup matches, including a hat-trick against Argentina in the 2022 final. If France dominates possession and Sweden's defense is vulnerable, a 3+ goal performance is plausible.
Mbappé has scored 3+ goals in only 5% of his career matches. Sweden's defensive structure is typically disciplined, and Mbappé has not faced them recently. Fatigue or tactical adjustments may further reduce his goal-scoring chances.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
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