Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Injury or tactical exclusion of Baena
AI updated 7/1/2026, 1:45:28 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
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ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
22%
ORYN Consensus
22%
Signal Score
+0.5
Opportunity
0.4
Graph Relationships
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Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
2,208,442
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 50.0¢
Entry: 18-24
—
Resolution
1d
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
15 points
In the upcoming FIFA World Cup game between Spain and Austria, scheduled for July 2 at 3:00 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Alex Baena records 1+ goals in the official box score within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Own goals do not count. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve "50-50". If the player is listed as inactive or otherwise does not play, the market will resolve "No". The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The market for Alex Baena scoring 1+ goals in Spain vs. Austria (FIFA World Cup, July 2) stands at 22%, reflecting moderate skepticism about his goal-scoring potential in this specific matchup. The outcome hinges on Baena's role in Spain's attack and Austria's defensive vulnerabilities.
Baena has shown form this season with consistent goal contributions for Spain, and Austria's defense has struggled against pacey wingers in recent fixtures. A high-pressing Spain side could create multiple chances, increasing Baena's likelihood of scoring. His recent UEFA Nations League performances suggest he's in good form.
Austria's defensive record has improved under their current manager, and they may prioritize compactness against Spain's attack. Baena is not a guaranteed starter, and Spain's midfield dominance could limit his goal-scoring opportunities. Historical head-to-head data shows Austria conceding fewer goals to wingers.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
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