Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Injury or tactical substitution limiting Livramento's playing time
Calibrated 100% · raw 150% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 6/26/2026, 5:16:23 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 22% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
49%
ORYN Consensus
50%
Signal Score
+1.5
Opportunity
1.0
Graph Relationships
Related markets and connected predictions
correlates · strength 60%
Sam Altman: OpenAI CEO
correlates · strength 60%
Manifold.love: 1000 daily active users
correlates · strength 60%
Dailon Livramento: 4+ shots
correlates · strength 60%
LLMs for Propaganda: 2023
correlates · strength 60%
US Debt Ceiling: June 2023
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
49/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
125
Avg slippage
4486 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
565ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
12,367,148
Trades learned
125
Strategies
5
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 150.0¢
Entry: 45-52
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
9
Price history
3 points
In the upcoming FIFA World Cup game between Cabo Verde and Saudi Arabia, scheduled for June 26 at 8:00 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Dailon Livramento records more than 3.5 shots within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. This market will resolve to "No" if Dailon Livramento records 3.5 shots or fewer within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. Shots are counted only if credited to Dailon Livramento in the official match statistics. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. If Dailon Livramento is listed as inactive or otherwise does not play, the market will resolve "No". This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. Extra time and penalty shoot-outs are excluded. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The prediction market on Dailon Livramento recording 4+ shots in the Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia FIFA World Cup match has a current probability of 50.00%, indicating neutral expectations. The outcome hinges on Livramento's performance in a single match with limited historical data on his shooting tendencies.
Livramento, a full-back for Cabo Verde, may take advantage of Saudi Arabia's defensive vulnerabilities, leading to frequent attacking runs and crosses that generate shots. His high work rate and set-piece involvement could also contribute to a higher shot count.
Saudi Arabia's disciplined defensive structure may limit Livramento's opportunities to create or take shots, especially if Cabo Verde struggles to maintain possession. If Livramento is marked tightly or deployed defensively, his shot total could remain low.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
Route to regulated venues when you are ready. ORYN never holds your funds.
ORYN does not hold funds or execute trades. You will be redirected to a third-party regulated venue.
No comments yet.