Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Injury or tactical substitution removing Benbouali early
Calibrated 100% · raw 4945% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 7/3/2026, 2:50:38 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 29% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
50%
ORYN Consensus
1%
Signal Score
-49.5
Opportunity
2.5
Graph Relationships
Related markets and connected predictions
correlates · strength 60%
correlated market
correlates · strength 60%
Geopolitical Events Impacting Oil Markets
correlates · strength 60%
Global Energy Supply Chain Stability
correlates · strength 60%
correlated market
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
3,162,740
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV -4945.0¢
Entry: 47-53
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
7 points
In the upcoming FIFA World Cup game between Switzerland and Algeria, scheduled for July 2 at 11:00 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Nadhir Benbouali records more than 4.5 shots within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. This market will resolve to "No" if Nadhir Benbouali records 4.5 shots or fewer within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. Shots are counted only if credited to Nadhir Benbouali in the official match statistics. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. If Nadhir Benbouali is listed as inactive or otherwise does not play, the market will resolve "No". This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. Extra time and penalty shoot-outs are excluded. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The market on Nadhir Benbouali recording 5+ shots against Switzerland in the FIFA World Cup is priced at 0.55%, indicating extremely low confidence in this outcome. The low probability reflects Algeria's defensive structure and historical shot data for Benbouali.
Benbouali's recent form shows aggressive forward play with high shot attempts in domestic league matches (average 3.2 shots/game). Algeria's tactical approach may prioritize wide play through Benbouali, creating crossing opportunities that could lead to multiple shot attempts. If Switzerland's defense struggles with high press or aerial duels, Benbouali could capitalize with direct shots.
Algeria's defensive record concedes few shots (0.8 per game in qualifiers), suggesting limited attacking pressure. Switzerland's midfield control (62% possession in recent matches) may suppress Algeria's transition play. Benbouali's shot conversion rate (12% in 2026 WC qualifiers) indicates low efficiency, reducing likelihood of multiple attempts.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
Route to regulated venues when you are ready. ORYN never holds your funds.
ORYN does not hold funds or execute trades. You will be redirected to a third-party regulated venue.
No comments yet.