Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Amoura may not start or be substituted early
Calibrated 100% · raw 4500% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 7/2/2026, 10:16:59 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| omniroute | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 30% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
50%
ORYN Consensus
5%
Signal Score
-45.0
Opportunity
27.0
Graph Relationships
Related markets and connected predictions
correlates · strength 60%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June?
correlates · strength 60%
Will Manifold.love reach 1000 daily active users (7d average) by Feb 14, 2024?
correlates · strength 60%
Mohamed El Amine Amoura: 5+ shots
correlates · strength 60%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
correlates · strength 60%
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
3,446,153
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV -4500.0¢
Entry: 47-53
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
14 points
In the upcoming FIFA World Cup game between Switzerland and Algeria, scheduled for July 2 at 11:00 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Mohamed El Amine Amoura records more than 4.5 shots within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. This market will resolve to "No" if Mohamed El Amine Amoura records 4.5 shots or fewer within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. Shots are counted only if credited to Mohamed El Amine Amoura in the official match statistics. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. If Mohamed El Amine Amoura is listed as inactive or otherwise does not play, the market will resolve "No". This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. Extra time and penalty shoot-outs are excluded. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
This market asks whether Algerian striker Mohamed El Amine Amoura will record 5 or more shots in the Switzerland vs. Algeria World Cup match on July 2. At 7%, the market prices a low probability, consistent with typical shot volumes for forwards. A bet here requires Amoura to have an unusually high-volume shooting performance.
Amoura is Algeria's primary attacking threat and could see elevated shot volume if Algeria trails or the match is open. He has demonstrated high shot rates at club level, and the Swiss defense may be vulnerable if pressed aggressively.
Switzerland's disciplined defense and midfield control often limit opponent shot totals. Amoura averages well under 5 shots per game, and if he is isolated or Algeria defends deep, his opportunities will be scarce.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
Route to regulated venues when you are ready. ORYN never holds your funds.
ORYN does not hold funds or execute trades. You will be redirected to a third-party regulated venue.
No comments yet.