Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Injury or tactical substitution limiting Fassnacht's involvement
Calibrated 100% · raw 945% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 7/3/2026, 2:48:26 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 24% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
13%
ORYN Consensus
3%
Signal Score
-9.4
Opportunity
8.7
Graph Relationships
Related markets and connected predictions
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No direct relationship
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Economic/Geopolitical Impact: Christian Fassnacht scoring goals could reflect positively on fan engagement or viewership for sports events, which might see increased betting activity. However, markets provided do not directly correlate with sports events or outcomes.
correlates · strength 60%
correlated market
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
49/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
125
Avg slippage
4486 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
565ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
12,367,148
Trades learned
125
Strategies
5
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV -945.0¢
Entry: 10-16
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
7 points
In the upcoming FIFA World Cup game between Switzerland and Algeria, scheduled for July 2 at 11:00 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Christian Fassnacht records 3+ goals in the official box score within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Own goals do not count. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve "50-50". If the player is listed as inactive or otherwise does not play, the market will resolve "No". The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The prediction market for Christian Fassnacht scoring 3+ goals in Switzerland vs. Algeria (FIFA World Cup, July 2) is highly unlikely, with a 3.05% probability. This reflects Fassnacht's role as a winger with limited goal-scoring history and Algeria's defensive record.
Fassnacht could exceed expectations if he receives significant playing time, capitalizes on counterattacks, or Algeria's defense falters under pressure. A high-scoring game (e.g., 3-2) or tactical shift favoring Swiss wingers could create opportunities for Fassnacht to score multiple goals.
Fassnacht is unlikely to score 3+ goals given his positional role (winger) and Switzerland's typical attacking structure. Algeria's defensive solidity and potential low-scoring match (e.g., 1-0) further reduce the likelihood of a multi-goal performance.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
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