Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Player may not be a real professional footballer
Calibrated 100% · raw 1005% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 7/3/2026, 2:17:54 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| omniroute | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 30% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
13%
ORYN Consensus
2%
Signal Score
-10.1
Opportunity
9.0
Graph Relationships
Related markets and connected predictions
correlates · strength 60%
correlated market
correlates · strength 60%
Adil Boulbina: 3+ goals is related to markets with high uncertainty, such as Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by July 31, which is a low-probability event, and Putin being out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026, which is a high-uncertainty event. Adil Boulbina: 3+ goals is also related to Will Manifold.love reach 1000 daily active users (7d average) by Feb 14, 2024, which is a market with a high level of volatility. Adil Boulbina: 3+ goals is not related to Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June, which is a market with a high level of uncertainty and a low-probability event. Adil Boulbina: 3+ goals is also not related to Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026, which is a market with a high level of uncertainty and a low-probability event.
correlates · strength 60%
correlated market
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
3,180,407
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV -1005.0¢
Entry: 10-16
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
8 points
In the upcoming FIFA World Cup game between Switzerland and Algeria, scheduled for July 2 at 11:00 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Adil Boulbina records 3+ goals in the official box score within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Own goals do not count. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve "50-50". If the player is listed as inactive or otherwise does not play, the market will resolve "No". The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
This market bets on Adil Boulbina scoring 3+ goals in a Switzerland vs Algeria World Cup match. With a current probability of 2.45%, the market implies this is highly unlikely. The player is not a known professional, suggesting this may be an AI-generated or speculative market.
If Adil Boulbina is an exceptionally talented player in a favorable matchup against a weak Algerian defense, a hat trick is theoretically possible. The match context could create high-scoring conditions.
Scoring 3+ goals in a World Cup match is extremely rare for any player, let alone an unheralded one. The player likely lacks professional pedigree, and Algeria's defense should contain him. The 2.45% probability accurately reflects the near-impossibility.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
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