Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Mané's injury status or absence from the lineup
AI updated 6/30/2026, 10:30:30 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 47% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
12%
ORYN Consensus
12%
Signal Score
0.0
Opportunity
0.0
Graph Relationships
Related markets and connected predictions
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High correlation with other sports-related markets, particularly those related to Sadio Mané's performance
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No correlation with ship transits in the Strait of Hormuz
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Low correlation with geopolitical events (e.g., Strait of Hormuz, Putin presidency)
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No direct correlation with tech-related markets (e.g., Manifold.love daily active users)
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No correlation with crude oil prices
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
1,920,179
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 0.0¢
Entry: 9-15
—
Resolution
1d
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
3 points
In the upcoming FIFA World Cup game between Belgium and Senegal, scheduled for July 1 at 4:00 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Sadio Mané records 3+ goals in the official box score within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Own goals do not count. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve "50-50". If the player is listed as inactive or otherwise does not play, the market will resolve "No". The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The market for Sadio Mané scoring 3+ goals in the Belgium vs. Senegal World Cup match on July 1 has a low probability of 12.00%, reflecting the rarity of a player achieving three goals in a single game. Historical data and player performance metrics suggest this outcome is unlikely.
Mané has a history of explosive performances, including multiple-goal games in elite competitions. If Senegal employs a high-pressing strategy and Belgium's defense struggles with pace, Mané could capitalize on counterattacks or set-piece opportunities to surpass three goals.
Mané has not scored three goals in a single game for Senegal in recent years, and Belgium’s defensive structure, led by experienced defenders, is likely to limit his scoring opportunities. Fatigue or tactical adjustments may further reduce his goal threat.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
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