Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Injury or tactical exclusion (Lukaku listed as inactive)
Calibrated 100% · raw 6750% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 7/1/2026, 6:30:27 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 45% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
5%
ORYN Consensus
72%
Signal Score
+67.5
Opportunity
50.6
Graph Relationships
Related markets and connected predictions
correlates · strength 60%
correlated market
correlates · strength 60%
Related to sports performance (Romelu Lukaku: 1+ assists) which may be influenced by team and league dynamics, but not directly related to listed markets
correlates · strength 60%
Unrelated to geopolitical events (Strait of Hormuz, Putin)
correlates · strength 60%
Unrelated to tech startup performance (Manifold.love)
correlates · strength 60%
Unrelated to commodity prices (Crude Oil)
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
2,553,845
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 6750.0¢
Entry: 2-8
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
2 points
In the upcoming FIFA World Cup game between Belgium and Senegal, scheduled for July 1 at 4:00 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Romelu Lukaku records more than 0.5 assists within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. This market will resolve to "No" if Romelu Lukaku records 0.5 assists or fewer within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. Assists are counted only if credited to Romelu Lukaku in the official match statistics. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. If Romelu Lukaku is listed as inactive or otherwise does not play, the market will resolve "No". This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. Extra time and penalty shoot-outs are excluded. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The market for Romelu Lukaku recording 1+ assists in the Belgium vs. Senegal World Cup match has a low probability (7.5%) due to his historical assist record and Belgium's tactical setup. His recent form and role in the team reduce the likelihood of a high-assist performance.
Lukaku could exceed 0.5 assists if Belgium employs a direct, wing-focused attack, creating multiple crossing opportunities. His physical presence in the box may lead to secondary assists from deflections or rebounds. A high-possession game could also increase his chances of assisting.
Lukaku has averaged fewer than 0.5 assists per game in his career, and Belgium often relies on midfield playmakers like Kevin De Bruyne for assists. His role as a target man reduces his assist opportunities, making a 1+ assist outcome unlikely. Senegal's defensive structure may further limit his involvement.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
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