Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Extreme volatility in the 1-minute candle could lead to a 50-50 resolution if prices are exactly equal
Calibrated 100% · raw 9795% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 6/27/2026, 4:00:22 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 22% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
100%
ORYN Consensus
2%
Signal Score
-98.0
Opportunity
96.0
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
49/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
125
Avg slippage
4486 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
565ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
12,367,148
Trades learned
125
Strategies
5
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV -9795.0¢
Entry: 97-100
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
8
Price history
2 points
This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for ETH/USDT Jun 26 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the Jun 27 '26 12:00 ET candle. This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for ETH/USDT Jun 26 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the Jun 27 '26 12:00 ET candle. If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the ETH/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance ETH/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The Ethereum price prediction market for June 27 shows an overwhelming 99.95% probability of a 'Down' outcome, indicating strong market sentiment favoring a price decline. The resolution hinges on a specific Binance ETH/USDT candle comparison between June 26 and June 27 at 12:00 ET.
A bullish scenario could unfold if unexpected positive catalysts (e.g., Ethereum ETF approvals, macroeconomic tailwinds, or technical breakout above resistance) drive ETH price higher on June 26, leading to a 'Down' resolution if June 27 closes lower. Short-term momentum or whale activity could also trigger a reversal.
The bear case is dominant given the 99.95% probability, suggesting institutional or retail sentiment overwhelmingly expects a price drop. Factors like regulatory uncertainty, macroeconomic headwinds (e.g., Fed policy), or technical breakdowns below support levels could solidify this outcome. Minimal deviation in the 1-minute candles would be required for a 'Down' resolution.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
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