Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Inconsistencies in the X tracker's data capture
AI updated 6/27/2026, 4:15:20 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 22% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
2%
ORYN Consensus
2%
Signal Score
+0.1
Opportunity
0.0
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
49/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
125
Avg slippage
4486 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
565ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
12,367,148
Trades learned
125
Strategies
5
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 5.0¢
Entry: 0-5
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
12
Price history
2 points
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from June 26 12:00 PM ET to July 3, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The market assesses a low probability (1.95%) that Elon Musk will post between 300-319 tweets on X during the specified week in June-July 2026. Historical data suggests his posting frequency is highly variable, but recent trends show reduced activity compared to peak periods.
Elon Musk could exceed 300 tweets if he resumes high-volume posting, possibly due to a major product launch, controversial statements, or engagement-driven initiatives. His past behavior during 2022-2024 showed bursts of 200-400 tweets in a week, particularly during high-profile events or disputes.
A decline in posting frequency is plausible given his reduced activity in 2025, potential platform fatigue, or shifts in priorities (e.g., Tesla, SpaceX, or AI ventures). Regulatory scrutiny or platform policy changes could also curtail his engagement. The 300-319 range is narrow and historically uncommon for sustained periods.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
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