Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Inaccurate or delayed tweet tracking by XTracker
AI updated 6/27/2026, 9:34:17 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 21% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
0%
ORYN Consensus
1%
Signal Score
+0.8
Opportunity
0.8
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
49/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
125
Avg slippage
4486 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
565ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
12,367,148
Trades learned
125
Strategies
5
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 85.0¢
Entry: 0-3
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
12
Price history
5 points
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from June 23 12:00 PM ET to June 30, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The prediction market assigns a 0.15% probability to Elon Musk posting between 380-399 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026, indicating an extremely low likelihood of this outcome. Historical patterns suggest Musk's tweet frequency is either significantly higher or lower, with 380-399 tweets in an 8-day period being an outlier.
Musk could post 380-399 tweets if he enters a hyperactive phase, possibly due to a major product launch, policy announcement, or engagement-driven campaign. His recent activity spikes (e.g., 2022-2023) show bursts of >100 tweets/day, making this plausible if sustained over 8 days.
Musk’s posting frequency has trended downward since 2023, with fewer high-volume days. External factors (e.g., legal constraints, platform changes, or personal priorities) could suppress his output, making 380-399 tweets unlikely. The market’s low probability reflects this skepticism.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
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