Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Quick stomp or forfeit limiting Roshan opportunities
Calibrated 100% · raw 395% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 7/2/2026, 10:18:39 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| omniroute | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 30% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
100%
ORYN Consensus
96%
Signal Score
-4.0
Opportunity
2.6
Graph Relationships
Related markets and connected predictions
correlates · strength 60%
correlated market
correlates · strength 60%
Unrelated to sports and geopolitical events
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
3,069,667
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV -395.0¢
Entry: 97-100
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
6 points
This market is about whether both teams kill Roshan at least once during Game 2. Roshan is a powerful neutral boss in Dota 2 that spawns at the start of the game and respawns 8–11 minutes after each death, dropping the Aegis of the Immortal and other valuable items. This market will resolve to "Yes" if both Spirit Academy and RE.Arise each kill Roshan at least once during Game 2. This market will resolve to "No" if either team (or both teams) does not kill Roshan during Game 2. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date, this market will resolve to 50-50. If Game 2 is never played due to forfeit, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to 50-50. If Game 2 is not played because the series result has already been determined (e.g., a team clinches the series before Game 2 is needed), this market will resolve to 50-50. If Game 2 begins but is not completed and ends via forfeit, this market will resolve based on whether both teams had killed Roshan prior to stoppage. If the condition was not met, this market will resolve to "No". If Game 2 is remade, resolution will be based on the remade game only. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://www.dotabuff.com. However, if https://www.dotabuff.com has not published final results within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
This market prices near-certainty that both teams will kill Roshan at least once in Game 2 of the Spirit Academy vs. RE.Arise series. The 99.75% probability reflects the current Dota 2 meta where Roshan is frequently contested by both sides, especially in balanced matchups. However, this extreme confidence may be overpriced given the possibility of a one-sided game or the 50-50 resolution clause if Game 2 is not played.
Both teams have demonstrated consistent Roshan play in recent matches, and the patch encourages frequent Roshan fights. With multiple respawns possible, even a losing team typically finds an opportunity to secure Roshan at least once during a full-length game.
A lopsided match could result in only one team killing Roshan, or an early snowball might end the game before the second team gets a chance. Additionally, if the series is decided in Game 1, Game 2 might not be played, triggering the 50-50 resolution.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
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