Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Match cancellation, forfeit, or delay beyond 7 days
AI updated 7/2/2026, 10:19:40 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| omniroute | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 30% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
0%
ORYN Consensus
1%
Signal Score
+0.5
Opportunity
0.3
Graph Relationships
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Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
3,069,667
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
MEDIUM
EV 45.0¢
Entry: 0-3
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
6 points
This market is about whether any player achieves an Ultra Kill during Game 2. In Dota 2, an Ultra Kill occurs when a single player kills 4 enemy heroes in rapid succession without dying. This market will resolve to "Yes" if any player on either team achieves an Ultra Kill during Game 2. This market will resolve to "No" if no player achieves an Ultra Kill. A Rampage (5 kills in rapid succession) also counts as an Ultra Kill having occurred for the purposes of this market. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date, this market will resolve to 50-50. If Game 2 is never played due to forfeit, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to 50-50. If Game 2 is not played because the series result has already been determined (e.g., a team clinches the series before Game 2 is needed), this market will resolve to 50-50. If Game 2 begins but is not completed and ends via forfeit, this market will resolve based on whether an Ultra Kill occurred prior to stoppage. If no Ultra Kill occurred, this market will resolve to "No". If Game 2 is remade, resolution will be based on the remade game only. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://www.dotabuff.com. However, if https://www.dotabuff.com has not published final results within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
This market assesses whether any player achieves an Ultra Kill (4 kills in rapid succession) during Game 2 of a Dota 2 match. The current probability of 0.25% is very low, reflecting the rarity of such events in professional play. Ultra Kills occur in roughly 1–2% of games, suggesting the market may be underpriced.
The base rate of Ultra Kills in professional Dota 2 is around 1–2% per game, well above 0.25%. Aggressive, teamfight-oriented drafts or a blowout game can increase the likelihood. If the match features high-kill teams or a decisive game 2, the chance may be significantly higher than the market implies.
Ultra Kills are inherently rare events requiring sustained teamfights and low player deaths. Competitive Dota 2 tends to be cautious and methodical, reducing the probability of rapid multi-kills. The specific match context (unknown teams, game 2 of a series) may further lower the chance.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
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