Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: match cancellation or delay due to unforeseen circumstances
AI updated 6/26/2026, 1:45:49 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 22% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
100%
ORYN Consensus
100%
Signal Score
0.0
Opportunity
0.0
Graph Relationships
Related markets and connected predictions
correlates · strength 60%
unpredictability
correlates · strength 60%
anticipation
correlates · strength 60%
market volatility
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
49/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
125
Avg slippage
4486 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
565ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
12,367,148
Trades learned
125
Strategies
5
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 0.0¢
Entry: 97-100
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
9
Price history
8 points
In the upcoming Lower bracket round 2 match between Natus Vincere and MOUZ in the The International Europe Closed Qualifier Playoffs, initially scheduled for June 26 at 6:20AM ET: This market is about the total kills in Game 1. This market will resolve to "Over" if the total kills in Game 1 is 56 or more. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Under". If the match is canceled (not played at all) or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date, this market will resolve to 50-50. If Game 1 is never played due to forfeit, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to 50-50. If Game 1 begins but is not completed, this market will resolve to 50-50. If Game 1 is remade, resolution will be based on the total kills in the remade game only. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://www.dotabuff.com. However, if https://www.dotabuff.com has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In Dota 2, a "kill" for markets like team total kills, kill handicap, and interval kills is counted when an enemy hero dies and the game awards a hero kill event to the opposing team's score, which is the number shown on the in-game scoreboard and tracked in scoreboard feeds as team kills. In practical terms, this includes any enemy hero death that increments a team's kill score, regardless of who got the last hit, including situations where the victim dies to creeps, a tower, or neutrals as long as the kill is still credited to the enemy team. It does not include denies, such as killing your own allied units, and it also does not include building or objective destructions like towers, barracks, or Roshan, since those are tracked separately from kills. Assists also do not count as kills, because they are recorded as a separate player stat and multiple players can assist on a single kill.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The market for 'Total Kills Over/Under 55.5 in Game 1' between Natus Vincere and MOUZ is overwhelmingly skewed toward 'Over' with a 99.95% probability, indicating near-certainty of achieving 56 or more kills in Game 1. The resolution conditions are highly specific, with a 50-50 outcome only triggered by match cancellation, delay, or incomplete/forfeited gameplay.
Natus Vincere and MOUZ are historically high-level teams with aggressive playstyles, likely leading to a high-paced Game 1 with frequent team fights and objective-based engagements. Dota 2 matches at this tier often exceed 55 kills due to sustained combat, high kill participation rates, and minimal early-game dominance that prolongs the game.
A bear case would involve one team securing an early advantage, leading to a quick victory (e.g., a 2-0 or 2-1 series) with fewer total kills in Game 1. Alternatively, a defensive or passive playstyle could reduce the number of team fights, resulting in a lower kill count. External factors like technical issues or player unavailability might also truncate the game.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
Route to regulated venues when you are ready. ORYN never holds your funds.
ORYN does not hold funds or execute trades. You will be redirected to a third-party regulated venue.
No comments yet.