Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Match cancellation or delay beyond resolution window
AI updated 6/30/2026, 10:00:23 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 22% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
63%
ORYN Consensus
63%
Signal Score
+0.5
Opportunity
0.3
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
49/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
125
Avg slippage
4486 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
565ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
12,367,148
Trades learned
125
Strategies
5
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
MEDIUM
EV 50.0¢
Entry: 60-66
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
4
Price history
2 points
This market refers to the Dota 2 match between Ilbirs eSports and Habibis in the European Pro League Group B, initially scheduled for June 30 at 6:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Ilbirs eSports" if Ilbirs eSports wins 2 or more games than Habibis in this match. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Habibis". Games won by forfeit, disqualification, walkover, or default are counted towards the handicap, provided that the match is completed. If the match is canceled (not played at all for any reason), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's match forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match ends due to the clinching game being forfeited this will count as a completed match. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://www.dotabuff.com. However, if https://www.dotabuff.com has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The market favors Ilbirs eSports (-1.5) with a 63% probability, indicating a moderate expectation of Ilbirs winning by two or more games. The handicap suggests confidence in Ilbirs' superior performance relative to Habibis.
Ilbirs eSports has a strong roster and recent form, with key players performing well in EU Pro League Group B. Habibis may struggle with consistency, making a two-game margin plausible. The handicap (-1.5) aligns with Ilbirs' historical dominance in head-to-head matchups.
Habibis could exploit Ilbirs' weaknesses in draft or late-game execution, leading to a closer series. External factors like player fatigue or unexpected strategies may reduce Ilbirs' margin. If Habibis wins the first game, the handicap becomes harder to achieve.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
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