Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: match_cancellation_or_delay
Calibrated 100% · raw 200% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 6/28/2026, 10:01:23 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
50%
ORYN Consensus
52%
Signal Score
+2.0
Opportunity
1.7
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
1,075,451
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
8
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 200.0¢
Entry: 47-53
—
Resolution
6h
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
1 points
This market refers to the Dota 2 match between 4ikibamboni and Nemiga Gaming in the European Pro League Group A, initially scheduled for June 28 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Over" if 4ikibamboni and Nemiga Gaming play 3 or more games in this series. If fewer than 3 games are played, this market will resolve to "Under". Games won by forfeit, disqualification, walkover, or default are counted towards the total, provided that the match is completed. If the match is canceled (not played at all for any reason), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's match forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match ends due to the clinching game being forfeited this will count as a completed match. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://www.dotabuff.com. However, if https://www.dotabuff.com has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The prediction market for the Dota 2 match between 4ikibamboni and Nemiga Gaming in the European Pro League Group A is evenly split at 50%, reflecting uncertainty in the outcome based on match format and resolution rules.
The 'Over' outcome (3+ games played) is plausible if the series is a best-of-5 or best-of-7, increasing the likelihood of multiple games being contested. Competitive parity between the teams could also lead to extended series.
The 'Under' outcome (fewer than 3 games) is likely if the series is a best-of-1 or best-of-3, with a quick decisive victory. Technical issues, player unavailability, or one-sided dominance could truncate the match.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
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