This market will resolve according to the number of times Donald Trump (@realDonaldTrump), posts on Truth Social between June 30, 12:00 PM ET and July 7, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, Truth Social itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Key risk: Unpredictable behavior or external shocks (e.g., legal rulings)
AI updated 6/27/2026, 11:15:27 PM
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
This market will resolve according to the number of times Donald Trump (@realDonaldTrump), posts on Truth Social between June 30, 12:00 PM ET and July 7, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, Truth Social itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Crowd Consensus
23%
ORYN Consensus
22%
Signal Score
-0.5
Opportunity
0.4
ORYN is polling its model network — Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — for this market. The consensus and per-model dissent will appear here.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
The prediction market assesses a 22% probability that Donald Trump will post between 120-139 times on Truth Social during the specified week in 2026. This suggests low confidence in high-frequency posting activity, reflecting historical volatility in his social media behavior.
Trump could exceed expectations due to sustained political engagement, midterm election cycles, or legal/personal developments prompting increased communication. Historical peaks (e.g., 100+ posts in a week) suggest potential for 120-139 posts if no major disruptions occur.
Lower-than-expected posting could result from reduced campaign activity, platform restrictions, or shifts in communication strategy. Trump’s posting frequency has fluctuated significantly, and external factors (e.g., legal issues or health) could suppress activity.
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Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from June 30 to July 7, 2026? is tracked on ORYN with data sourced from polymarket. Current market-implied probability is 22.5% while ORYN AI estimates 22%.
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