Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Unpredictable behavior or external shocks (e.g., legal rulings)
AI updated 6/27/2026, 11:15:27 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 22% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
23%
ORYN Consensus
22%
Signal Score
-0.5
Opportunity
0.4
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
49/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
125
Avg slippage
4486 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
565ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
12,367,148
Trades learned
125
Strategies
5
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV -50.0¢
Entry: 20-26
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
6
Price history
9 points
This market will resolve according to the number of times Donald Trump (@realDonaldTrump), posts on Truth Social between June 30, 12:00 PM ET and July 7, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, Truth Social itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The prediction market assesses a 22% probability that Donald Trump will post between 120-139 times on Truth Social during the specified week in 2026. This suggests low confidence in high-frequency posting activity, reflecting historical volatility in his social media behavior.
Trump could exceed expectations due to sustained political engagement, midterm election cycles, or legal/personal developments prompting increased communication. Historical peaks (e.g., 100+ posts in a week) suggest potential for 120-139 posts if no major disruptions occur.
Lower-than-expected posting could result from reduced campaign activity, platform restrictions, or shifts in communication strategy. Trump’s posting frequency has fluctuated significantly, and external factors (e.g., legal issues or health) could suppress activity.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
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