Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Essentially random walk behavior over 5-minute intervals makes prediction unreliable
AI updated 7/3/2026, 4:20:42 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| omniroute | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 29% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
50%
ORYN Consensus
50%
Signal Score
0.0
Opportunity
0.0
Graph Relationships
Related markets and connected predictions
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r1: Dogecoin price movement (short-term) may correlate with broader market sentiment or risk appetite, which could be influenced by geopolitical events like Strait of Hormuz traffic normalization or crude oil price movements, as these affect global economic stability and investor confidence.
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r2: Dogecoin's performance is often driven by social media trends and retail investor activity, which may have indirect links to niche markets like Manifold.love user growth, reflecting online community engagement and speculative interest in digital platforms.
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Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
3,162,341
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
HIGH
EV 0.0¢
Entry: 47-53
—
Resolution
15h
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
1 points
This market will resolve to "Up" if the Dogecoin price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the DOGE/USD data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/doge-usd. Please note that this market is about the price according to Chainlink data stream DOGE/USD, not according to other sources or spot markets.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
This is a short-term 5-minute price movement prediction market for Dogecoin (DOGE/USD) using Chainlink data, resolving based on whether the price at 10:50 PM ET is greater than or equal to the price at 10:45 PM ET on July 3. The market is currently priced at 50%, reflecting the essentially random nature of very short-term cryptocurrency price movements.
In a 5-minute window, any positive momentum, whale buying, or favorable micro-sentiment could push DOGE slightly higher. Meme coin volatility can produce sharp short-term spikes, and even a fraction of a cent increase resolves to 'Up'.
Short-term crypto price movements are dominated by noise, and selling pressure or profit-taking in any 5-minute window can easily push DOGE lower. The resolution threshold is binary, so even marginal downward drift resolves to 'Down'.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
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