Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Unexpected player absences or substitutions
Calibrated 100% · raw 250% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 6/28/2026, 7:15:27 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
62%
ORYN Consensus
64%
Signal Score
+2.5
Opportunity
1.8
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
1,014,695
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
8
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 250.0¢
Entry: 58-64
—
Resolution
3h
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
2 points
This market refers to the Counter-Strike Upper bracket semifinal 1 match between ex-MANA eSports and Alpha Dominion Nation in the United21 Playoffs, initially scheduled for June 28 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "ex-MANA eSports" if ex-MANA eSports wins 2 or more maps than Alpha Dominion Nation in this match. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Alpha Dominion Nation". Maps won by forfeit, disqualification, walkover, or default are counted towards the handicap, provided that the match is completed. If the match is canceled (not played at all for any reason), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's match forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match ends due to the clinching map being forfeited this will count as a completed match. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://hltv.org. However, if https://hltv.org has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The market favors ex-MANA eSports (-1.5 handicap) to win by at least two maps against Alpha Dominion Nation in their Upper bracket semifinal match. The 61.5% probability reflects a moderate but clear preference for ex-MANA's stronger form and recent performances.
ex-MANA eSports has shown consistent top-tier performance in recent tournaments, with a higher average map win percentage and stronger team synergy. Alpha Dominion Nation, while skilled, has struggled against elite teams in high-pressure matches, making ex-MANA the safer bet to exceed the handicap margin.
Alpha Dominion Nation could exploit ex-MANA's potential weaknesses in specific map pools (e.g., Inferno or Mirage) or capitalize on fatigue from prior matches. A strong tactical adjustment or underdog performance could push the result to a 1-1 tie or a narrow 2-1 victory for Alpha Dominion, failing the handicap.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
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