Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Overreliance on historical baselines without specific team data
Calibrated 100% · raw 4000% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 7/2/2026, 10:48:12 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| omniroute | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 30% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
50%
ORYN Consensus
10%
Signal Score
-40.0
Opportunity
12.0
Graph Relationships
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Pyunik FA vs. Marsaxlokk FC: Neither team to score first
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Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
3,445,122
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV -4000.0¢
Entry: 47-53
—
Resolution
12d
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
1 points
In the upcoming match between Pyunik FA and Marsaxlokk FC, scheduled for July 16, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Pyunik FA" if Pyunik FA are the first to score within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. This market will resolve to "Marsaxlokk FC" if Marsaxlokk FC are the first to score within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. If neither team scores within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time, this market will resolve "Neither". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve to "Neither". This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. Extra time and penalty shoot-outs are excluded. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
This market predicts whether neither team scores first in the Pyunik FA vs Marsaxlokk FC match, currently at 50% for 'Neither'. However, historically, the probability of no goal in regulation time is much lower, suggesting potential mispricing. The match features two lower-league teams, which may increase the chance of low scoring but not to 50%.
Both teams are from smaller leagues and may struggle to score, especially if they play defensively early on. The match could be characterized by caution, leading to a 0-0 stalemate. Additionally, early season qualifiers often see lower scoring as teams gel.
The vast majority of football matches see at least one goal; the chance of a 0-0 draw is typically below 10%. Even weak teams often score due to errors or set pieces, and the implied 50% probability is far above historical norms.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
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