Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Very small sample or illiquid market leads to distorted probability
Calibrated 100% · raw 2945% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 7/3/2026, 1:19:59 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| omniroute | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 30% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
1%
ORYN Consensus
30%
Signal Score
+29.4
Opportunity
10.3
Graph Relationships
Related markets and connected predictions
correlates · strength 60%
correlated market
correlates · strength 60%
Cuiabá EC vs. América FC: América FC O/U 1.5
correlates · strength 60%
Cuiabá EC vs. América FC: Match Total Goals O/U 2.5
correlates · strength 60%
correlated market
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
3,068,647
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 2945.0¢
Entry: 0-4
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
3 points
In the upcoming Brazil Serie B game between Cuiabá EC and América FC, scheduled for July 2 at 7:00 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Over" if Cuiabá EC score 2 or more goals within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. If Cuiabá EC score less than 2 goals within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time, this market will resolve to "Under". This market is based solely on Cuiabá EC's score, not the combined score of both teams. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. Extra time and penalty shoot-outs are excluded. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The market implies a 0.55% probability that Cuiabá scores 2+ goals against América in Brazil Serie B, which is extremely low for any professional soccer team. This likely mispricing suggests a potential contrarian opportunity, as even weak teams score multiple goals in roughly 20-35% of matches.
Cuiabá has home-field advantage and can exploit defensive lapses; América may be in poor form or resting players. At 0.55%, the over is drastically undervalued—a small speculation offers high upside if Cuiabá scores twice, which occurs more often than 1 in 200 matches.
Cuiabá is a low-scoring side historically, facing a strong América defense. The 0.55% probability may reflect insider knowledge or severe offensive injuries. The market may already price in a likely under scenario due to specific conditions (e.g., both teams playing defensively).
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
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