Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: match_cancellation_or_delay
Calibrated 100% · raw 4875% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 6/30/2026, 8:45:35 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 21% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
100%
ORYN Consensus
51%
Signal Score
-48.8
Opportunity
26.8
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
49/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
125
Avg slippage
4486 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
565ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
12,367,148
Trades learned
125
Strategies
5
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV -4875.0¢
Entry: 97-100
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
5
Price history
4 points
This market refers to the tennis match between Stan Wawrinka and Matteo Berrettini in the Wimbledon ATP, originally scheduled for June 29, 2026 at 6:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Over" if the total number of games completed in set 4 equals or exceeds 10. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Under." Any tiebreak in set 4 counts as one (1) game toward the total. If set 4 is not completed for any reason (including the match ending before set 4 is reached), this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled before play begins, or delayed beyond 7 days without commencement, this market will also resolve 50-50. Resolution will be based on official Grand Slam results.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The prediction market for 'Wawrinka vs. Berrettini: Set 4 Games O/U 9.5' is near-neutral at 50.50%, indicating no strong consensus on whether the total games in set 4 will exceed 9.5. The market remains highly sensitive to match dynamics and potential disruptions.
A bullish outcome (Over 9.5 games) could occur if both players engage in an extended baseline rally, frequent net approaches, or a high-intensity tiebreak, typical of their aggressive playing styles. Wawrinka's experience in five-set matches and Berrettini's powerful serve-and-volley game may prolong set duration.
A bearish outcome (Under 9.5 games) may materialize if either player dominates early, leading to a quick set conclusion or a one-sided tiebreak. Injuries, weather delays, or tactical adjustments (e.g., conservative play) could also reduce set duration.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
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