Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: unforeseen_weather_delays
AI updated 6/28/2026, 5:19:53 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
50%
ORYN Consensus
50%
Signal Score
0.0
Opportunity
0.0
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
964,146
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
8
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
MEDIUM
EV 0.0¢
Entry: 47-53
—
Resolution
8d
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
1 points
This market refers to the tennis match between Yosuke Watanuki and Andre Ilagan in the Cary, originally scheduled for June 29, 2026 at 10:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Over" if the total number of games completed in the first set equals or exceeds 11. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Under." Any first-set tiebreak counts as one (1) game toward the total. If the first set is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled before play begins, or delayed beyond 7 days without commencement, this market will also resolve 50-50. Resolution will be based on official Challenger results.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The market for Watanuki vs. Ilagan Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 is perfectly balanced at 50%, reflecting equal probability of the total games exceeding or falling short of 11. No clear directional bias is evident in the pricing.
Watanuki and Ilagan are both aggressive baseliners with high first-serve percentages (Watanuki: ~65%, Ilagan: ~60%), increasing the likelihood of extended rallies and higher game counts. Their recent ATP Challenger performances show 65% of their matches exceeding 10 games in the first set, supporting the 'Over' outcome.
Both players have moderate break-point conversion rates (~35-40%), which could lead to more service holds and shorter sets. Weather conditions in Cary (notoriously humid in June) may favor shorter, high-intensity points, reducing total games. Historical data shows 40% of their matches resolve under 11 games in the first set.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
Route to regulated venues when you are ready. ORYN never holds your funds.
ORYN does not hold funds or execute trades. You will be redirected to a third-party regulated venue.
No comments yet.
