Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: match_cancellation_delay
Calibrated 100% · raw 4855% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 6/29/2026, 9:45:25 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 21% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
51%
ORYN Consensus
100%
Signal Score
+48.5
Opportunity
48.1
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
49/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
125
Avg slippage
4486 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
565ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
12,367,148
Trades learned
125
Strategies
5
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 4855.0¢
Entry: 48-54
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
7
Price history
2 points
This market refers to the tennis match between Angel Veliz and Daniel Nunez in the Quito, originally scheduled for June 29, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Over" if the total number of games completed across all sets equals or exceeds 22. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Under." All tiebreaks—including any Champions/Super tiebreak—count as one (1) game toward the total. If the match begins but is not completed, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled before play begins or delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a result, this market will also resolve 50-50. Resolution will be based on official Challenger statistics.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The market overwhelmingly favors 'Over' (22+ games) in the Veliz vs. Nunez tennis match with a 99.5% probability, indicating near-certainty of high game totals. This reflects strong expectations of an extended, high-scoring match likely involving multiple sets and potential tiebreaks.
The bull case assumes Veliz and Nunez are both aggressive baseliners or all-court players prone to long rallies, with high service break rates increasing game counts. External factors like altitude in Quito (2,850m) may further reduce serve dominance, boosting total games. Historical data on both players' match styles suggests a preference for extended exchanges.
The bear case posits a dominant server in either player leading to quick holds and fewer games, or a one-sided match where a player races to a straight-sets win with minimal resistance. Weather conditions (e.g., high altitude wind) or surface-specific play styles could suppress total games, though this is less likely given the market's near-certainty.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
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