Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: player_injury
Calibrated 100% · raw 155% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 6/29/2026, 8:01:00 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 21% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
50%
ORYN Consensus
52%
Signal Score
+1.6
Opportunity
1.0
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
49/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
125
Avg slippage
4486 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
565ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
12,367,148
Trades learned
125
Strategies
5
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 155.0¢
Entry: 47-53
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
6
Price history
1 points
This market refers to the tennis match between Juan Pablo Varillas and Dmitry Popko in the Quito, originally scheduled for June 29, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Over" if the total number of games completed in set 2 equals or exceeds 9. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Under." Any tiebreak in set 2 counts as one (1) game toward the total. If set 2 is not completed for any reason (including the match ending before set 2 is reached), this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled before play begins, or delayed beyond 7 days without commencement, this market will also resolve 50-50. Resolution will be based on official Challenger results.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The prediction market for Varillas vs. Popko Set 2 Games O/U 8.5 is nearly balanced with a slight lean toward the 'Over' outcome at 50.45%. The match's resolution depends on the total games played in set 2, including tiebreaks.
Varillas, ranked higher (ATP #80) than Popko (ATP #110), may dominate with aggressive baseline play, increasing the likelihood of a high-scoring set 2. Popko’s recent form (underperforming in 2024) could further tilt the market toward 'Over.'
Popko’s higher first-set tiebreak win probability (historically strong in tight matches) could lead to a quick set 2, reducing total games. Varillas’ injury history (e.g., wrist issues in 2023) introduces uncertainty if he withdraws mid-match.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
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