Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Match delays or cancellations due to external factors (weather, logistical issues)
Calibrated 100% · raw 155% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 6/29/2026, 8:16:33 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 24% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
50%
ORYN Consensus
52%
Signal Score
+1.6
Opportunity
1.0
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
49/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
125
Avg slippage
4486 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
565ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
12,367,148
Trades learned
125
Strategies
5
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 155.0¢
Entry: 47-53
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
2
Price history
2 points
This market refers to the tennis match between Juan Pablo Varillas and Dmitry Popko in the Quito, originally scheduled for June 29, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Over" if the total number of games completed across all sets equals or exceeds 23. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Under." All tiebreaks—including any Champions/Super tiebreak—count as one (1) game toward the total. If the match begins but is not completed, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled before play begins or delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a result, this market will also resolve 50-50. Resolution will be based on official Challenger statistics.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The Varillas vs. Popko match O/U 22.5 games market is currently trading near parity (50.45%), reflecting uncertainty in the expected game total. The outcome hinges on match dynamics, player styles, and potential tiebreak scenarios.
Varillas and Popko are both known for aggressive baseline play and long rallies, which could push the game total over 22.5, especially if the match extends to three sets. Varillas' recent form in clay courts (where the Quito Challenger is played) and his tendency to engage in extended points could favor an 'Over' outcome.
Popko is a strong server and may limit the number of games through quick holds, while Varillas' recent injury concerns could reduce his endurance, potentially leading to a shorter match. A straight-sets victory with minimal tiebreaks could push the total under 22.5.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
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