Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: match_cancellation_or_delay
AI updated 6/28/2026, 5:19:33 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
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ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
50%
ORYN Consensus
50%
Signal Score
0.0
Opportunity
0.0
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
964,146
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
8
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
MEDIUM
EV 0.0¢
Entry: 47-53
—
Resolution
8d
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
1 points
This market refers to the tennis match between Juan Pablo Varillas and Dmitry Popko in the Quito, originally scheduled for June 29, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Over" if the total number of games completed in the first set equals or exceeds 9. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Under." Any first-set tiebreak counts as one (1) game toward the total. If the first set is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled before play begins, or delayed beyond 7 days without commencement, this market will also resolve 50-50. Resolution will be based on official Challenger results.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The prediction market for the Varillas vs. Popko first-set games over/under 8.5 is evenly split, reflecting uncertainty in the outcome. The 50% probability suggests no clear favorite, with both players' historical performance and surface adaptation as key considerations.
Varillas, ranked higher and with recent clay-court success, could dominate the baseline exchanges, leading to a high-scoring first set. Popko's aggressive style may also produce extended rallies, pushing the total games over 8.5.
A tight, low-error match with frequent breaks could result in fewer than 9 games played in the first set. Both players' consistency on clay might suppress unforced errors, reducing the total game count.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
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