Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: match cancellation or delay
AI updated 7/1/2026, 5:15:29 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 50% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
70%
ORYN Consensus
71%
Signal Score
+0.5
Opportunity
0.4
Graph Relationships
Related markets and connected predictions
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Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
2,274,844
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 50.0¢
Entry: 67-73
—
Resolution
7d
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
6 points
This market refers to the tennis match between Juan Pablo Varillas and Alan Magadan in the Quito, originally scheduled for July 1, 2026 at 12:30PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Juan Pablo Varillas' if Juan Pablo Varillas advances against Alan Magadan. This market will resolve to 'Alan Magadan' if Alan Magadan advances against Juan Pablo Varillas. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The prediction market favors Juan Pablo Varillas (70.50%) in the Quito tennis match against Alan Magadan, reflecting his higher probability of advancing based on current ATP Tour data and recent performance trends.
Varillas is favored due to his consistent performance in clay court tournaments, higher ATP ranking, and recent form. His head-to-head record against Magadan, if favorable, further supports his probability. External factors like home advantage (if applicable) or fatigue in Magadan's recent matches could also contribute to Varillas' success.
Magadan could overcome the odds if his recent performance shows a strong clay court record or if Varillas faces injury or fatigue. Upsets in tennis are common, especially in lower-tier tournaments like Quito, where underdog players may have more motivation. External factors like weather conditions or referee decisions could also play a role.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
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