Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Match cancellation or delay beyond resolution window
Calibrated 100% · raw 495% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 6/30/2026, 8:46:38 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 24% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
0%
ORYN Consensus
5%
Signal Score
+5.0
Opportunity
4.7
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
49/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
125
Avg slippage
4486 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
565ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
12,367,148
Trades learned
125
Strategies
5
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 495.0¢
Entry: 0-3
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
6
Price history
1 points
This market refers to the tennis match between Lucas Da Silva and Felipe Meligeni Alves in the Quito, originally scheduled for June 30, 2026 at 2:00PM ET. This market will resolve to "Over" if the total number of games completed in set 2 equals or exceeds 9. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Under." Any tiebreak in set 2 counts as one (1) game toward the total. If set 2 is not completed for any reason (including the match ending before set 2 is reached), this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled before play begins, or delayed beyond 7 days without commencement, this market will also resolve 50-50. Resolution will be based on official Challenger results.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The prediction market for Silva vs. Alves Set 2 Games Over/Under 8.5 shows an extremely low probability (0.05%) of the total games in set 2 equaling or exceeding 9. The market is highly skewed toward the 'Under' outcome due to the low baseline expectation for a high-scoring set in a Challenger-level match.
A bullish outcome would require an unusually high-scoring set 2, with both players exhibiting aggressive baseline play or extended rallies. This could occur if either player has a strong serving game disrupted by break opportunities, leading to prolonged games. Alternatively, a player with a dominant serve might face unexpected resistance, extending the set duration.
The bear case is supported by the typical characteristics of Challenger-level tennis, where matches often feature tight contests with fewer games per set due to strong serving and conservative play. Additionally, the low market probability suggests widespread expectation of a quick, low-scoring set 2, possibly ending in a tiebreak or a short game sequence.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
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