Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: match_cancellation_or_delay
Calibrated 100% · raw 195% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 6/30/2026, 8:15:41 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 50% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
0%
ORYN Consensus
2%
Signal Score
+1.9
Opportunity
1.9
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
2,115,726
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 195.0¢
Entry: 0-3
—
Resolution
6d
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
2 points
This market refers to the tennis match between Lucas Da Silva and Felipe Meligeni Alves in the Quito, originally scheduled for June 30, 2026 at 2:00PM ET. This market will resolve to "Over" if the total number of games completed in the first set equals or exceeds 10. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Under." Any first-set tiebreak counts as one (1) game toward the total. If the first set is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled before play begins, or delayed beyond 7 days without commencement, this market will also resolve 50-50. Resolution will be based on official Challenger results.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The prediction market for Silva vs. Alves Set 1 Games O/U 9.5 shows an extremely low probability (0.05%) of the first set totaling 10+ games, indicating strong market consensus toward the 'Under' outcome.
A bullish scenario could emerge if the players engage in an aggressive baseline rally or prolonged rallies, increasing the likelihood of extended games. Surface conditions (e.g., slow clay courts in Quito) or high humidity might also prolong rallies, pushing the total toward 10+ games.
The bear case favors the 'Under' outcome, as players with strong serve games or quick match strategies (e.g., first-serve dominance) may limit total games to 9 or fewer. Weather disruptions or a rapid first-set conclusion (e.g., a dominant player winning 6-0) could also skew the result lower.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
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