Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Match abandonment due to injury or default
Calibrated 100% · raw 4795% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 6/30/2026, 9:16:05 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 21% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
100%
ORYN Consensus
52%
Signal Score
-48.0
Opportunity
31.2
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
49/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
125
Avg slippage
4486 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
565ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
12,367,148
Trades learned
125
Strategies
5
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV -4795.0¢
Entry: 97-100
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
5
Price history
3 points
This market refers to the tennis match between Pedro Sakamoto and Alan Magadan in the Quito, originally scheduled for June 29, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Over" if the total number of games completed in set 2 equals or exceeds 9. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Under." Any tiebreak in set 2 counts as one (1) game toward the total. If set 2 is not completed for any reason (including the match ending before set 2 is reached), this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled before play begins, or delayed beyond 7 days without commencement, this market will also resolve 50-50. Resolution will be based on official Challenger results.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The prediction market for Sakamoto vs. Magadan Set 2 Games O/U 8.5 is currently balanced at 50.45%, indicating no strong bias toward over or under. The match's outcome depends on set 2 game totals, with potential for resolution ambiguity if the set is incomplete.
A bullish outcome (Over 8.5 games) could materialize if both players engage in an aggressive baseline rally or extended rallies, typical of clay court matches. High-profile Challenger events often feature competitive sets with longer durations, favoring the over scenario.
A bearish outcome (Under 8.5 games) may occur if either player dominates with quick holds and breaks, resulting in a swift set conclusion. Weather disruptions or a player injury could also truncate the set, pushing the total below 9 games.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
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