Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: match_cancellation_or_delay
Calibrated 100% · raw 4795% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 6/30/2026, 9:30:56 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 50% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
100%
ORYN Consensus
52%
Signal Score
-48.0
Opportunity
31.2
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
2,117,436
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV -4795.0¢
Entry: 97-100
—
Resolution
5d
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
6 points
This market refers to the tennis match between Pedro Sakamoto and Alan Magadan in the Quito, originally scheduled for June 29, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Over" if the total number of games completed across all sets equals or exceeds 23. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Under." All tiebreaks—including any Champions/Super tiebreak—count as one (1) game toward the total. If the match begins but is not completed, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled before play begins or delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a result, this market will also resolve 50-50. Resolution will be based on official Challenger statistics.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The Sakamoto vs. Magadan tennis match prediction market is currently near-neutral with a slight bias toward 'Over' (52.5+ games) at 50.45% probability. The match is scheduled for June 29, 2026, and resolution depends on total games played across all sets.
Sakamoto and Magadan are both aggressive baseliners with high first-serve percentages, increasing the likelihood of long rallies and extended games. Their head-to-head history shows frequent tiebreaks, which count as one game each, pushing the total toward the 'Over' threshold.
Both players have moderate second-serve weaknesses, but their recent form suggests efficient service games and quick set finishes. Weather conditions in Quito (high altitude, cool temperatures) may favor shorter rallies, reducing the total games below 23.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
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